Can Amajita Upset the Apple Cart at the U-20 World Cup?
Diski Analytica is a Football blog written by Hansley Jugar, a data analyst in a love/hate relationship with South African football.
The FIFA U-20 World Cup has officially kicked off, and Amajita find themselves in a decidedly tougher group than they would have hoped when the draw took place in December 2019. Expectations will be subdued, but can they cause an upset and make a nation proud?
In this blog, I aim to analyse the strengths and weaknesses of the final squad, key players and those I feel should have been included in the final team selection.
All the data used has been sourced from transfermarkt.com and soccerway.com
Team and Opponents Overview
This will be Amajita’s fourth World Cup, and major performance improvements will need to be made if they are to have any hope of making it past the Group stages.
In past World Cups, the best they could muster was an exit in the Round of 16 in 2009. More damning, is perhaps the fact that out of 10 World cup games, they have only won once, have conceded 18 goals (an average of 1.8 per game) and are averaging less than a goal a game.
It would be unfair to judge this group of players based on historic results, so I took a look at how the boys have performed in the games leading up to their opening match against Argentina on Saturday.
Amajita have played 7 games overall in 2019, 5 in the U-20 AFCON/WC qualifiers, and 2 friendlies against Panama and Ukraine respectively (the friendly against Panama, a 1–0 loss was not included in the data sets used, and will not be included in any analysis henceforth).
If there’s one thing the data shows, it is that Amajita’s performance has been average and this is reflected in their results. There is a clear goal scoring problem with a meager 3 goals scored in 6 games. On a more positive note, they conceded the same number of goals in the same period, albeit against opposition that is likely a few levels below their opponents at the World Cup.
Argentina and Portugal will be favorites to progress from Group F and realistically, Amajita should be aiming for third place, and possibly a place in the next round as one of the 2 third best qualifiers. This will definitely mean having to win at least one game.
Comparing Amajita to their group stage opponents, it is easy to see the gap in quality between them and the two heavy hitters, Argentina and Portugal. Argentina, a six time U-20 champion, comes into the competition in terrific form having won 7 of their last 10. Portugal has only played 4 games in 2019, with a squad that most competing nations will be envious of (Diego Dalot (Manchester United) and Rafael Leão(Lille) have both had terrific seasons in tough leagues).
South Korea, while they’re no pushovers, seem to be Amajita’s likeliest source of a win.
The Players
Given the lack of U-20 players currently playing active roles at their respective clubs, selecting a strong and competitive group was never going to be an easy task. In this regard, I reckon selecting players that helped the country qualify was the best decision.
Of the final 21 man squad, only two are yet to play a single game at U-20 national level. There is an average of 3 appearances across the whole squad with Sibusiso Mabiliso of Amazulu making the most appearances. Lyle Foster, who was unavailable for the AFCON at the beginning of the year is Amajita’s main threat with 4 goals in 5 appearances. Once again, the lack of goals is a big worry with only two other players registering goals (Luke Le Roux’s penalty against Burundi at AFCON being one).
Six players made 1st team appearances at their clubs over the 2018/2019 season. Kobamelo Kodisang of Sanjoanense (3rd division in Portugal) made the most appearances and Sibusiso Mabiliso follows closely having made 21 appearances in the South African 1st division (the majority of which were starts).
Key Players
- Lyle Foster: Undoubtedly, South Africa’s talisman. An injury derailed what is a promising start to his AS Monaco career but he is a proven goal scorer and will be desperate to prove his mettle against top opposition.
- Sibusiso Mabiliso: Already a seasoned campaigner in the South African 1st Division with 3732 minutes of top flight action over the past two seasons. Will be a key player in defense, and hopefully a threat in attack.
Unlucky to Miss Out
- Goodman Mosele: A Telkom knockout champion. His exclusion is unjustifiable.
- Dean Solomons: Centre-back at Ajax Amsterdam. Made 11 appearances in the Dutch 2nd Division.
- Tashreeq Matthews: Made a few appearances on loan at Jong Utrecht (Dutch 2nd Division) from Borussia Dortmund.
- Augustine Mahlonoko: Orlando Pirates youngest ever debutant in the PSL era.
My Starting Eleven for the game against Argentina
