Reviewing South Africa’s Preliminary AFCON Squad
Diski Analytica is a Football blog written by Hansley Jugar, a data analyst in a love/hate relationship with South African football.
As we gear up for next year’s AFCON in the Ivory Coast, Hugo Broos has unveiled a preliminary list of 50 players that will be trimmed down to 27, four more than the 23 allowed in previous tournaments.
Before we dive into the stats, a quick disclaimer: I’m not a soccer expert; I just enjoy nerding out on the data. Also, data availability is like finding gold — rare. So, this is a humble attempt with the barest of bones.
I won’t be delving into who I think got snubbed in this piece. That’s a debate for another day. Overall, though, I think we’ve got a solid pool of players to work with. Now, let’s get into the numbers.
Note: Data used is sourced from fbref.com and safa.net, and to my knowledge, is correct and up to date as at 18 December 2023.
High Level Selection Analysis
First off, let’s take a broad look at the squad. We’re talking age, international experience — the big factors.
The squad’s age distribution tells us it’s a mix of young blood and seasoned players, averaging out at 26.5. Some exciting youngsters, with Ime Okon, 19, leading the pack and Themba Zwane, Thabang Monare, both 34, bringing in the wisdom.
A considerable portion of the squad is relatively new or inexperienced on the international scene, especially in the midfield. This injects an element of unpredictability, as these players bring fresh energy and hunger to make their mark. Building chemistry will be crucial.
Speaking of chemistry, almost half of the squad play for either Mamelodi Sundowns or Orlando Pirates, arguably the two best clubs in the country currently. I expect a large number of players in the final team to come from these clubs which is in line with Broos’ previous selections.
Position Specific Comparisons
Goalkeepers
I would wager all of my life savings on Ronwen Williams being South Africa’s number one when the competition starts.
He plays for the best team on the continent (don’t quote me), that has the best defense, and is captain of the national team. He is not without his critics but I don’t see anyone in the current squad displacing him. Bruce Bvuma’s selection was a bit of a headscratcher given how rarely he played, and Veli Mothwa looks to have lost his position as the number one at Amazulu. Picking three goalkeepers out of this batch should be relatively straightforward.
Defenders
Mamelodi Sundowns once again lead the pack in the crucial metric of goals conceded. An all Sundows defense should not be out of question but there are definitely players from other clubs putting their hands up to start. Fawaaz Basadien at left-back is a solid choice, and has been integral to Stellies recent success. My wild card pick? Tapelo Xoki. Consistent, reliable, and don’t underestimate his long-range passes.
Midfielders
Delving into the intricate world of midfield dynamics, I unearthed some compelling data using an innovative and interesting approach for me — the radar chart. By normalizing player performance metrics, I ensured a level playing field for comparison, scaling stats like goals, assists, passing accuracy, tackles, and interceptions. The resulting radar chart provides an insightful snapshot of each midfielder’s average performance across these normalized metrics, allowing readers to draw their own conclusions.
Amidst this trove of information, one name shines: Grant Margeman. The radar suggests that, when paired with the right midfield counterparts, he possesses the potential to be a game-changer. Picture the possibilities with Teboho Mokoena by his side, complemented by a steadfast defensive midfielder, I could cry.
Attackers
Navigating the attacking lineup presents the most challenging aspect of finalizing the squad. Many attackers lack consistent performance, and several players find themselves in and out of their respective club starting lineups. Additionally, the extended break in competitive play for Bongi, with the MLS season on hiatus, adds another layer of complexity to the decision-making process.
Examining individual output, Zakhele Lepasa boasts the highest goals-per-90 ratio, but recent dips in form raise concerns. While Lyle Foster would likely have been the front-runner to lead the line two months ago, uncertainties about his availability put this in question. Consequently, Khanyisa Mayo emerges as a compelling choice, he is in impressive form and is coming off the back of a successful goal-scoring season.
The unexpected yet welcomed inclusion of Elias Mokwana underscores his earned place in the squad, and he could be a wildcard selection. The remaining components of the forward line seem to fall into place, with Percy Tau positioned to start on the right. The left side presents a decision between Bongokuhle Hlongwane and Mihlali Mayambela, both viable options for the starting role.
Who should be in the final squad?
Ok, now comes the fun, experimental and in no way conclusive. I attempted to build a function to identify the 27 players with the highest potential impact, factoring in their output this season (different metrics were taken into account based on the player’s position, for example, attackers are given a higher score based on their goals per 90 ratio), their international experience, and game time this season. A score was assigned to each player based on the above and the results were surprising.
The top 3 players using this ranking system are:
- Bongokuhle Hlongwane
- Ronwen Williams
- Teboho Mokoena
The 3 players to just miss out:
- Lyle Foster (due to minutes played this season)
- Sphephelo Sithole (due to metrics used to rank midfielders)
- Siyabonga Ngezana (due to lack of international experience)
It’s essential to recognize the limitations of this approach — it’s an experiment, not a definitive conclusion. While I may personally opt to include Lyle Foster and Melusi Buthelezi, the system’s recommended 27-player squad seems robust. The blend of metrics attempts to encapsulate a player’s potential impact, acknowledging both current form and international experience. This serves as a launchpad for more nuanced discussions on the final squad, underscoring the intricate balance between statistics and on-field dynamics.
Finally, here’s an unsolicited bonus — my starting 11 for the opening clash against Mali on the 16th of January.
