We Need to Talk About Lebo
Diski Analytica is a Football blog written by Hansley Jugar, a data analyst in a love/hate relationship with South African football.
Lebo Mothiba had a solid 2018/2019 season at Strasbourg. He proved himself a capable Ligue 1 forward, and he was integral in the team securing the Coupe de la Ligue (League Cup) and finishing comfortably in Ligue 1.
Many (me included) hoped he would transfer his form for club to country. He had a below average Afcon 2019 and is yet to score, seven games into the latest Ligue 1 season. Is he struggling for form and low on confidence or, was his performance last season a flash in the pan and unsustainable?
All the data used has been sourced from transfermarkt.com, understat.com and whoscored.com
Lebo Mothiba in France
Lebo Mothiba’s path to Ligue 1 is peculiar. After spending his formative years at Mamelodi Sundowns, he moved to Diambars Academy in Senegal. It is there where he was spotted by scouts from LOSC Lille who he eventually joined as an 18 year old.
Cumulatively, he has made 83 appearances in both Ligue 1 and Ligue 2, contributing 25 goals (0.3 per game) and 6 assists. Decent returns considering his age and the fact that he only became a starter at Lille following his exploits on loan at Valenciennes during the 2017/2018 season.
Looking exclusively at his performances last season and the season before, we see little difference. He adapted well to the step up in competition, and was the joint top goalscorer and provided the second most attacking contributions for Strasbourg. A very good start to his career in France.
Mothiba’s attacking contributions were among the highest compared to Ligue 1 ‘centre-forwards’ that were 24 or younger last season (PSG and Lyon excluded). Strasbourg scored the 6th most goals in all of Ligue 1, and all three of their forwards contributed. Ludovic Ajorque scored the same number of goals as Mothiba in the league and Nuno Da Costa scored three less.
Strasbourg’s manager favors a 3–5–2 formation which they have used in 90% of their matches this season. The forward pairing is rotated regularly but Ajorque seems to be ahead of both this season, he is the club’s top scorer so far. Da Costa, like Mothiba has failed to register a goal.
Strasbourg have struggled for goals this season with only 5 in 7 games, they are struggling to get shots off and are creating the 6th least chances per game. The teams seems to be in a rut and the highs of last season are a fading memory.
A Matter of Time?
Mothiba hasn’t had the best start to the season, but has this been coming? Strasbourg as a team punched above their weight and maybe this is a return to the norm.
The 2019/2020 season is Strasbourg’s third after promotion from the second division in 2017. Before that, the team was last in the first division in 2008. Adding to that, the team had a sub-par transfer window. How does that translate to the form Mothiba is in?
Mothiba made a great start to his career at Strasbourg scoring 9 goals in his first 16 league games. Amazingly, he only started 10 of these games.
The second half of the season was the opposite. 2 goals in 16 games, half of which were starts show that he has been off form for all of 2019. The team’s performance stayed about the same with 23 points earned compared to 29 in the first half of the season. On the whole, Mothiba has 2 goals in 22 games in the league in 2019. Not exactly what you want from your starting forward.
Over the two previous seasons, Mothiba averaged a little shy of 2 shots a game and his xG (expected goals) was slightly lower than his actual goal ratio. Basically, this means he was good at converting his chances. Most efficient goal-scorers tend to exceed their xG.
He has attempted almost 3 shots per 90 minutes this season, and his xG remains similar to the last two seasons which suggests he has not been clinical. The sample size is very small and concrete conclusions cannot be drawn from it. However, looking at his shot map below its easy to see he is not taking high quality shots. He needs to do better in getting into good scoring positions and needs better service, something Strasbourg is struggling with.
Lebo Mothiba is definitely going through a rough patch, but the same can be said about Strasbourg. He has also struggled for game time which has hampered his consistency. There have been positive signs though and he has the tenacity and talent to put this bad run of form behind him.
